The Hat-enomics of Chad Cordero

People have been getting worried lately about the fact that Chad Cordero’s brim has been shockingly curved so far this spring training (as pictured to the right in a photo stolen from the Nationals Enquirer). I think every Nationals fan loves seeing that remarkably flat brim on the mound as much as they love almost having a heart attack every save opportunity Chad has. My favorite part of his saves is that the inevitably third out comes with runner(s) in scoring position on a deep fly ball you judge to be gonezo by Austin Kearns body language, until it inevitably drops into his glove somewhere a few inches shy of the warning track. Last season I attended game 3 of the series the Nats swept on the road at Camden Yards and left feeling like I hadn’t gotten money’s worth because the Chief sat the O’s down in order in the bottom of the 9th.

Anyhow, I digress. For those of you who don’t have a PhD in hat-enomics like I do, I’ll explain something important about baseball caps that the DC Sports Bog and the Nationals Enquier are either ignoring or don’t know.

To start, I investigated Chad Cordero’s brim preferences based on my observed data collected over his three regular seasons as a National. This data suggests Cordero’s preference for flat brims holds across day vs. night games, save vs. non-save opportunity, and pre vs. post all-star break. Therefore, I established that Cordero’s preference for flat, non-curved brims was extremely strong.

However, during spring training 2007 and thus far in spring training 2008, Cordero wore his hat with a moderate to strong curvature. This new-found curvature was initially baffling; the data simply didn’t fit with the model I’d developed for the regular season.

This drove me to create a new model, one which investigated the relationship between Cordero’s brim curvature and the type of hat being worn. During the regular season, MLB players wear the traditional New Era 59Fifty model caps. While wearing this cap, Cordero demonstrated the strong affinity for the flat brim for which Nationals fans most often recognize him. However, starting in 2007, MLB switched from issuing the New Era 59Fifty during spring training, to the newly developed New Era 39Thirty model cap. Based cap data from spring trainings prior to 2007, we see that Cordero wore his cap with a flat brim. It was only once MLB began issuing the 39Thirty model caps that Cordero began wearing his cap with a curved brim.

Upon further investigation I discovered that the 39Thirty comes out of the box with a pre-curved brim in a design meant to appeal to bros. Furthermore, said brim is near impossible straighten. Based on this evidence, I think its safe to conclude that Cordero would wear the brim of his 39Thirty just as flat as that of the 59Fifty if it was possible. There is no regular season brim preference data to contradict this. In conclusion, all of my models project Cordero’s brim to be flat as usual once the regular season starts and he is wearing his 59Fifty.

Here is the 39Thirty on the left, and the 59Fifty on the right for comparison.